Groups that have fared well in the 2010 South Australian Legislative Council race for preferences include Dignity for Disability, United Party and a slew of independents (including David Winderlich). Dignity for Disability in particular have done extremely well.
Groups which have fared very poorly include the majors such as the Liberals, Labor and Greens parties and some esoteric minors such as the Anti-Abortionists, DLP, Ultra Progressive Frayne Coombe, Shooters Party and both Euthanasia parties. Labor, Save the Unborn and One Nation are in particular on the nose with other candidates.
Middle of the pack include the FREE Australia Party, Democrats, Games4Croydon, Family First and Save RAH Party.
The full table is available below:
| Group | Average Placing in Group Voting Tickets |
| Dignity for Disability | 10th (9.91428571429) |
| United Party Water, Housing, Health Care | 14th (14.1714285714) |
| Independent Garry Mighall Water Environment Heritage | 14th (14.2857142857) |
| Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax | 14th (14.3714285714) |
| Independent for Commission Against Corruption | 15th (14.7142857143) |
| Independent David Winderlich Communities Against Corruption | 15th (14.9428571429) |
| Independent Kelly Henderson Parklands and Heritage | 15th (14.9714285714) |
| Fair Land Tax Tax Party | 15th (15.1714285714) |
| Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous | 16th (15.7428571429) |
| Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary | 16th (16.2285714286) |
| F.R.E.E. Australia Party | 17th (16.5142857143) |
| Australian Democrats | 17th (16.6285714286) |
| Independent Social Environmental & Economic Justice | 17th (16.7714285714) |
| Gamers 4 Croydon | 17th (17.0) |
| Independent SA Change | 17th (17.2285714286) |
| Save RAH Party | 17th (17.2285714286) |
| Independent No Desal No Dams | 17th (17.4285714286) |
| Independent Peter Panagaris C.A.R.S | 18th (17.6857142857) |
| Independent Climate Sceptics | 18th (17.9714285714) |
| Family First Party | 18th (18.3714285714) |
| Independent Less Tax Stewart Glass | 19th (18.7428571429) |
| Independent Frank Williams Law and Order | 19th (18.8) |
| The Nationals | 19th (19.0857142857) |
| Independent Christians for Voluntary Euthanasia | 19th (19.1142857143) |
| Independent SA Fishing & Lifestyle | 19th (19.2) |
| Independent Legalise Voluntary Euthanasia | 19th (19.3142857143) |
| Shooters Party | 20th (19.8857142857) |
| The Greens | 20th (19.9142857143) |
| Independent Joe Carbone MAGS 2010 | 20th (20.2) |
| Democratic Labor Party of Australia | 21th (20.7142857143) |
| Independent Howard Frayne Coombe Ultra Progressive | 21th (20.8) |
| Liberal Party | 21th (21.1142857143) |
| Australian Labor Party | 25th (25.1714285714) |
| Independent Trevor Grace Save the Unborn | 25th (25.2857142857) |
| One Nation | 25th (25.3142857143) |
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2 comments:
I've had a long look and concur with many commentators on 4 Lib, 4 ALP, 1 Green, 1 FF, and one that is anyone's guess.
Libs get the other one if Lib + RAH + FF + various others gets to 50%.
Notable is the D4D + Dem + Winderlich bloc; they all preference each other, so if they get nearly a quota between them, one of them will get the seat.
D4D has such favourable prefs (inc Dems' & Winderlich's before each other) - all they're missing is one early step, and they can climb the ladder of opportunity and get the last seat.
If D4D doesn't get a good start, then Winderlich will carry the votes of that bloc and be in with a chance of the last seat, esp if he gets a decent primary vote.
Eric
Really good points, Eric.
The big question is just how big is the "Other" vote.
I think you might be right on the money that Winderlich has a real chance. I'm doing a full scale batch of simulations now, should have typed it up in the next few days...
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