Newspoll has released its quarterly detailed breakdowns of people's voting intentions, including state-by-state breakdowns of primary votes. This allows us to extrapolate an interesting state-by-state swing to or from the major political parties, the Australian Labor Party, the Australian Liberal Party and the Australian Greens. Applying this swing to the 2007 Senate election results and running a batch of simulations using pyapollo we can see what trends are likely to be apparent in the Federal election later this year.
If an election was held today, the Senate results would possibly be Labor 19, Liberals 15, Greens 5, Independent 1. If Independent Nick Xenophon does not stand a friendly candidate and sits out the 2010 election (which is likely), the Greens are favourites to win the final seat in South Australia.
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