SA 2010: If all micros are created equal ... Thursday, March 18, 2010

The other day I ran a batch of simulations based on my own impressions of the South Australian Legislative Council Election. Basically I gave the micro parties and independents a slightly higher vote if I had heard of them (I live outside of SA) and a lower vote if I had not. The big winner was David Winderlich, who on 1% of the vote rode preferences from Dignity for Disability and the others to win a seat in nearly 40% of outcomes.

But what if all the smaller parties started with the same basic vote? Would Winderlich still outlast Dignity for Disability? Just who would rise to the top?

So I reset all the micros and independents to 0.5% of the vote and ran 20,000 simulations with the votes varied by normal distribution each simulation.

The big winners in this scenario are Dignity for Disability and the Greens. The losers are David Winderlich and Family First.

Read more after the jump...

In the new simulations, Dignity for Disability win a seat in over 60% of simulations, up from 1.37% last time. This reflects their phenomenal preference deals, where they were on average every other candidate's 10th choice (the next best deal-making, the United Party scored 14th), scooping up many of the other 0.5% of the votes. The Greens also benefit, with a second seat in 15.01% of simulations, up from 10% last time. The Fair Land Tax Party are also an outside chance on 3.65%

By contrast, Winderlich plummets from winning 40% of simulations winning in only 10.79%. Family First, a lock on a seat in 97% of simulations last week, fall to below 15%.

The bad news continues for the Australian Democrats. Not only has Democrat rat David Winderlich done well with preferences compared to their own ordinary preference deals, their newspoll vote of 1.0% (double the 0.5% I gave to other micros for which there is no polling information) was unable to help them, with a Democrat winning in only 2 simulations (out of 20,000). In both those simulations the result is DLP 1, Democrats 1, Greens 1, Labor x 4, Liberals x 4. However it should be noted that the DLP win a seat in 89 other simulations.

Full table is below:

Combination	Simulations Won	% won
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	8471	42.36
Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	3001	15.01
Greens,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	2158	10.79
Dignity for Disability,Family First,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	1979	9.9
Dignity for Disability,Fair Land Tax Tax Party,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	730	3.65
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	632	3.16
Family First,Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	444	2.22
Fair Land Tax Tax Party,Greens,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	397	1.99
Fair Land Tax Tax Party,Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	365	1.83
Greens,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Shooters Party	254	1.27
Greens,Greens,Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	236	1.18
Family First,Greens,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	206	1.03
Greens,Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	175	0.88
Family First,Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	167	0.84
Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Shooters Party	137	0.69
Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5,United Party	98	0.49
Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	82	0.41
Greens,Greens,Independent Peter Panagaris C.A.R.S,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	56	0.28
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Shooters Party	54	0.27
DLP,Greens,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	52	0.26
Greens,Winderlich,Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	45	0.23
Greens,Greens,Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	42	0.21
Fair Land Tax Tax Party,Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	29	0.15
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	27	0.14
DLP,Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	25	0.13
Greens,Winderlich,Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	24	0.12
Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Save RAH Party	17	0.08
Greens,Independent Christians for Voluntary Euthanasia,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	12	0.06
Greens,Greens,Independent Climate Sceptics,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	11	0.06
Greens,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,United Party	11	0.06
Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Shooters Party	10	0.05
DLP,Dignity for Disability,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	8	0.04
Fair Land Tax Tax Party,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,United Party	6	0.03
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Independent Climate Sceptics,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	6	0.03
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Independent Peter Panagaris C.A.R.S,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	5	0.03
Family First,Greens,Independent Christians for Voluntary Euthanasia,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	5	0.03
Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,Shooters Party,United Party	4	0.02
Family First,Greens,Independent Mark Aldridge Change is Necessary,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	4	0.02
DLP,Greens,Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	3	0.02
Family First,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,United Party	2	0.01
Greens,Independent Joe Ienco Motorsports Land Tax,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	2	0.01
DLP,Democrats,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	2	0.01
Greens,Independent Kelly Henderson Parklands and Heritage,Labor x 4,Liberals x 5	1	0.01
DLP,Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	1	0.01
Dignity for Disability,Greens,Independent Joseph Williams Indigenous,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	1	0.01
Greens,Independent Climate Sceptics,Winderlich,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	1	0.01
DLP,Greens,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4,United Party	1	0.01
DLP,Greens,Independent Christians for Voluntary Euthanasia,Labor x 4,Liberals x 4	1	0.01