Stephen Mayne's chances for the final spot in the North Metropolitan Region (Victorian 2010 Legislative Council election) Thursday, December 2, 2010

There has been much speculation over the winner of the fifth and final seat in the North Metropolitan Region of the Victorian 2010 Legislative Council election.

Most of the speculation was due to the ABC, which provides an election calculator that showed the fifth spot was likely to go to Crikey founder Stephen Mayne, who received 1% of the vote and then looked to be riding favourable prefences from other parties to the required quota of 16.7%.

The closed-sourced ABC calculator however, has several limitations, such as poor handling of ungrouped candidates and also ignoring leakage of preferences by below-the-line voters. It does format the results very nicely though (I'm stilling working on that)

So on Wednesday night, I took the current results from the VEC results website and put it through pycassandra, using below-the-line predictions provided by Stephen Mayne himself. The results are a bit different. Due to preference leakage, especially from Joanne Stuart in Group A, Mayne can not quite overhaul the final Liberal Candidate, and so pycassandra predicts the final makeup to be 2 ALP, 2 Liberal, 1 Green.

This morning, the Victorian Electorial Commission (VEC) began a recount of the votes, which means the tallies may change.

The Count:

Elected MIKAKOS, Jenny of Australian Labor Party from quota
Elected GUY, Matthew of Liberal Party from quota
Elected ELASMAR, Nazih of Australian Labor Party from quota
Elected BARBER, Greg of Greens from quota

At this point, no candidates had quota, so started eliminating

Eliminated 19 very low ranking candidates

Eliminated WHITEHEAD, Adrian of Whitehead (quota: 0.0054)
Preferences: 61.4583% flows to BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur (Greens), 19.7917% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 9.375% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 9.375% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C),
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6543
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.5937
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2029
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.1665
CONLON, Andrew | Family First | 0.136
BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur | Greens | 0.0754
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.0623
JANSON, Vickie | Christian Democratic Party | 0.0495
STUART, Joanne | Group A | 0.0304
ARCHIBALD, Kevin | Country Alliance | 0.0287

The rest of the count is after the jump...


Eliminated ARCHIBALD, Kevin of Country Alliance (quota: 0.0287)
Preferences: 91.3725% flows to PATTEN, Fiona (Australian Sex Party), 4.5098% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 2.1569% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 1.5686% flows to CONLON, Andrew (Family First), 0.3922% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C),
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6556
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.5943
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2291
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.1665
CONLON, Andrew | Family First | 0.1365
BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur | Greens | 0.0754
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.0624
JANSON, Vickie | Christian Democratic Party | 0.0495
STUART, Joanne | Group A | 0.0304

Eliminated STUART, Joanne of Group A (quota: 0.0304)
Preferences: 83.549% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C), 8.3179% flows to BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur (Greens), 4.0665% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 4.0665% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party),
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6568
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.5956
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2291
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.1665
CONLON, Andrew | Family First | 0.1365
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.0878
BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur | Greens | 0.0779
JANSON, Vickie | Christian Democratic Party | 0.0495

Eliminated JANSON, Vickie of Christian Democratic Party (quota: 0.0495)
Preferences: 91.25% flows to KAVANAGH, John (Democratic Labor Party), 3.5227% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 3.5227% flows to CONLON, Andrew (Family First), 1.1364% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 0.5682% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C),
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6586
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.5961
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2291
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.2117
CONLON, Andrew | Family First | 0.1382
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.0881
BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur | Greens | 0.0779

Eliminated BHATHAL, Alexandra Kaur of Greens (quota: 0.0779)
Preferences: 90.235% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C), 7.5643% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 2.2007% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party),  0.3328% of all voters exhausted this round
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6632
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.6015
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2291
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.2117
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.1546
CONLON, Andrew | Family First | 0.1382

Eliminated CONLON, Andrew of Family First (quota: 0.1382)
Preferences: 94.9146% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C), 2.5224% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 1.2612% flows to KAVANAGH, John (Democratic Labor Party), 0.9764% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 0.3255% flows to PATTEN, Fiona (Australian Sex Party),
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.6667
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.6029
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.2858
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2295
KAVANAGH, John | Democratic Labor Party | 0.2134

Eliminated KAVANAGH, John of Democratic Labor Party (quota: 0.2134)
Preferences: 74.0364% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C), 24.7323% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party), 1.2313% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party),  0.0553% of all voters exhausted this round
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.7187
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.6055
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.4414
PATTEN, Fiona | Australian Sex Party | 0.2295

Eliminated PATTEN, Fiona of Australian Sex Party (quota: 0.2295)
Preferences: 82.3342% flows to MAYNE, Stephen (Group C), 14.5209% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 3.145% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party),  0.0103% of all voters exhausted this round
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 0.7259
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.6387
MAYNE, Stephen | Group C | 0.6299

Eliminated MAYNE, Stephen of Group C (quota: 0.6299)
Preferences: 77.3174% flows to MURPHY, Nathan (Australian Labor Party), 22.6826% flows to ONDARCHIE, Craig (Liberal Party),  0.1209% of all voters exhausted this round
This Round: (candidate | group | quota)
ONDARCHIE, Craig | Liberal Party | 1.0685
MURPHY, Nathan | Australian Labor Party | 0.9186

Elected ONDARCHIE, Craig of Liberal Party